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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still